Imagining Low Probability Events: Contrasting Exemplar Cuing and Frequency Format Accounts
نویسنده
چکیده
The extent to which a low probability event can be imagined appears to increase the weight attached to the possibility of that event occurring. Two experiments tested contrasting accounts of how this ‘imagability’ of events is enhanced. The experiments used negative (e.g. suffering the side effect of a vaccine) and positive (e.g. winning a lottery) low probability events. Both experiments found strong support for the frequency format account, whereby imagability is enhanced through the use of frequency formats for conveying statistical information (e.g., 20 out of 2000). However, only limited support was found for ‘exemplar-cuing theory’ (J.J. Koehler & L. Macchi, 2004), which proposes two distinct mechanisms for the generation of instances. Overall, the results support the claim that the imagability of outcomes plays a role in thinking about low probability events, but question the underlying mechanisms specified by exemplar cuing theory for mediating such effects.
منابع مشابه
Getting Scarred and Winning Lotteries: Effects of Exemplar Cuing and Statistical Format on Imagining Low-Probability Eventsy
Three experiments tested the exemplar cuing and frequency format accounts of how the ‘imaginability’ of low-probability events is enhanced. The experiments manipulated imaginability by varying the statistics used to describe negative (e.g. being scarred as a result of laser surgery) and positive (e.g. winning a lottery) low-probability events. The results strongly supported the frequency format...
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